Samsung-RIM rumors getting the go-around again

Well, it’s been a few months now, so the obligatory rumor about Samsung either purchasing RIM or licensing BB10 has once again reared its head. The spreader of the rumor is something of a retread too – Peter Misek, an analyst from Jefferies, raised the possibility of a buyout back in January, which lead to a brief jump in the price of RIM shares. The bump was short lived, as Samsung shot down the rumors forthwith.

Misek was not dissuaded however, and released the following statement:

Given recent management comments in the press, it now appears that RIM is realizing what Wall Street has been saying for some time: they are a subscale manufacturer and desperately need a partner,” Misek wrote in a note to clients. “We believe RIM is attempting to revive discussions with Samsung regarding a BB10 licensing deal.

It’s true that RIM has become much more explicit about hoping to license out BB10 of late, but it’s not clear that Samsung would be interested – Samsung and Apple are currently divvying up the lion’s share of the profits in mobile, and the rampant success of their Android devices doesn’t suggest an imminent need to license a new OS that the public isn’t familiar with. And even if they did feel that need, they are already diversified by producing Windows Phone devices.

That’s not to say that we can’t imagine Samsung purchasing RIM, it’s just that we don’t think they would do it just to have their own operating system. If they do pull the trigger it seems more likely that they would be interested in RIM’s IP – they have more than a couple of useful patents that Samsung could use in their ongoing legal battles with Apple. Samsung would also inherit BBM, which was being tested running on both iOS and Android in past years.

source: AllThingsD
We wouldn’t expect quick action either way; Samsung wouldn’t risk licensing BB10 before RIM ships a device (sometime in 2013) that proves the OS is worth developing for, and they most likely wouldn’t swoop in and try to purchase RIM until seeing how their stock moves in the coming quarters. It will likely sink further as the quarters tick by without a new handset, and if BB10 does fail, the bottom will likely fall out of RIM’s stock, and they will be looking for someone to acquire them.
Regardless of what happens, we imagine Mr. Misek or others like him will be predicting it several more times between now and then. And one of these times they may even be right.